Here is an attempt to answer my own question, using the "division
polynomials" of Kevin's and Jared's answers. It is probably the maximally naive idea, and I do not claim it
works, though it's not clear to me that it can't.
I've community wiki-ed this answer, as it's probably junk anyway ...
Fix A,BinmathbbZ, obtaining an elliptic curve E over S=SpecmathbbZ[Delta−1], and a prime pgeq5 not dividing the
discriminant Delta=Delta(A,B). The
division polynomial psip(t) is supposed to be a polynomial of
degree d=(p2−1)/2 over mathbbZ, whose roots are the values
t(P)=x(P)/z(P) as P ranges over the points of exact order p in
E.
Turn psip into a homogeneous polynomial g of degree d in
mathbbZ[x,y,z], so that g(x,y,1)=psip(x). The polynomial
deterimes a curve C=(g) in P2/S, and thus a closed subscheme
D=EcapC of E. Over mathbbZ[Delta−1,p−1], D should
consist of
the points of exact order p on E (with multiplicity 1), together
with the basepoint of E with multiplicity d.
Claim. D is an effective Cartier
divisor on E/S, of degree 3d.
Proof. I don't know. I need to prove that DtoS is flat, the main concern being the behavior over
mathbbZ(p). I don't even know if this is really plausible in general.
Let's pretend we somehow know D is an effective Cartier divisor on E
relative to the base S. There is another relative Cartier
divisor, namely
D′=E[p]quad+quad(d−1)[0]
where E[p] is the p-torsion subgroup scheme of E, and [0] is the
degree one divisor of the basepoint of E.
It seems clear that away from characteristic p, the divisors D
and D′ are equal. Equality of effective divisors on a smooth curve
is a closed condition, so they should be equal over all of
S.
The divisor I want is thus D″=D−d[0]=D′−d[0] (which is still
effective). Then it's really easy to find a homogeneous polynomial
h of degree 2d/3 which defines D″; because of the form of the
Weierstrass equation, you can produce it from g by hand, and if my claim is true you can produce it globally, i.e., with coefficients in mathbbZ[A,B].
I've carried out this out in the case p=5, and it appears to "work".
That is, I get an answer which appears sane for general A and B, and
which for some explicit cases I've tried of A,BinmathbbZ appears to give me a flat DtoS.
For instance, if E/mathbbZ[6−1] is the curve with (A,B)=(0,1) (which reduces to a supersingular curve at p=5), I find
h=729z8−1350x4z4+360x6z2+5x8.
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