One constraint is the recommendation F=fracd2blambdageq1, in this case with d=12700mboxkm about the diameter of Earth, lambda=600mboxnm some wavelength of visible light, and b the distance between circular obstacle and observer.
The distance between Earth and the observer should hence be
bleqfracd2lambda=frac(12700cdot103mboxm)2600cdot10−9mboxm=481.67cdot1018mboxm
Another constraint is the surface roughness of the circular object:
Deltar<sqrtr2+lambdafracgbg+b−r, with r=6350mboxkm the radius of the circular obstacle (here Earth), g the distance between the point light source and the circular obstacle, and b the distance between the circular obstacle and the screen.
To simplify calculations, say gggb. Then approximately
Deltar<sqrtr2+lambdafracgbg−r=sqrtr2+lambdab−r.
After adding r and squaring you get
(Deltar+r)2<r2+lambdab.
This simplifies to
(Deltar)2+2rDeltar<lambdab.
Assume Deltarllr, and neglect the second order (Deltar)2 to get
2rDeltar<lambdab. Divide by lambda to get an approximate constraint for b as
b>frac2rDeltarlambda.
With 2r=12700mboxkm about the diameter of Earth, lambda=600mboxnm some wavelength of visible light, we get
b>frac12700cdot103mboxmcdotDeltar600cdot10−9mboxm=21.1667cdot1012Deltar.
The two constraints allow for reasonable values of Deltar.
Assume a surface roughness of Earth of e.g. Deltar=1mboxkm.
Then a valid range of distances of observers would be between
0.00224 and 50912 lightyears of 9.4607cdot1015mboxm from Earth.
In astronomcal units of 149597870700mboxm the closest distance of an observer would be 141.49mboxau from Earth.
Due to Earth's oblateness, however, you would get a point spread function significantly different from a dot for this "short" distance from Earth. It might be possible to correct this by an appropriate telescope optics.
The effect of gravitational lensing is
theta=frac4GMrc2=2.969cdot10−27fracmboxmmboxkgfracMr, after applying the constant of gravitation G and the speed of light c. With the mass M=5.97237cdot1024mboxkg and a radius of r=6350000mboxm of Earth, we get an angle of
theta=2.793cdot10−9 by gravitational lensing at the surface of Earth.
This would focus parallel rays of light to a point near a distance of
b=fracrtantheta=130.27cdot1015mboxm, or 13.77 lightyears, hence well beyond the minimum distance where an Arago spot could form. But, of course, the innermost peak of the point spread function would be closer to a circular disc at this larger distance with relevant gravitational lensing.
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