I've just realized I was being a little bit slow. I had already found on the internet that n−2sumlimitsnk=1phi(k) is roughly 3/pi2 and stupidly didn't notice that I could "differentiate" this to get exactly what I want. That is, sumlimitsNk=1phi(k) is about 3N2/pi2, so the difference between the sum to N+M and the sum to N is around 6NM/pi2, from which it follows that the average value near N is around 6N/pi2, which is entirely consistent with the well-known fact that the probability that two random integers are coprime is 6/pi2.
I'm adding this paragraph after Greg's comment. To argue that the probability that two random integers are coprime, you observe that the probability that they do not have p as a common factor is (1−1/p2). If you take the product of that over all p then you've got the reciprocal of the Euler product formula for zeta(2), or 1−2+2−2+ldots=pi2/6. It's not that hard to turn these formal arguments into a rigorous proof, since everything converges nicely.
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