Monday, 8 September 2008

ca.analysis and odes - Estimate for tail of power series of exponential function?

The exponential inequality yields explicit bounds as follows. For every BgeA, consider the series
S(A,B)=sum+inftyk=BfracAkk!.


Then, as Michael Lugo noticed, mathrmeAS(A,B)=P(NAgeB), where NA is a Poisson random variable with parameter A.



For every positive t, NAgeB if and only if mathrmetNAtBge1, and for every nonnegative random variable X, P(Xge1)leE(X). Using this for X=mathrmetNAtB, one gets
mathrmeAS(A,B)leE(X)=E(mathrmetNA)mathrmetB.


To go further, one uses the fact that the Laplace transform E(mathrmetNA) of a Poisson distribution is mathrmeA(mathrmet1) and one optimizes the upper bound with respect to tge0. That is, one plugs in the inequality the value of t such that mathrmet=B/A, which yields
S(A,B)lemathrmeBBlog(B/A).

Note that this upper bound is not asymptotic (which is nice) but that, in general, it is not optimal in the regime of the central limit theorem you are interested in (which is not so nice).



Turning to the case where Atoinfty and B=A+CsqrtA with C>0 fixed, the expansion of log(B/A) up to the order o(1/A) yields
S(A,A+CsqrtA)lemathrmeAC2/2+o(1)=mathrmeC2/2mathrmeA(1+o(1)).


Which is a (very odd) way to check that Phi(C)lemathrmeC2/2...



Edit : Non asymptotic upper bound :
S(A,A+CsqrtA)lemathrmeC2/2mathrmeAexp(C3/(2sqrtA)).

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