The simplest answer is probably best. Holmes had already taken the measure of Moriarty and knew him to be cold-blooded, methodical, and ruthlessly efficient. Having traced his operations for a number of months, as well as the methods Professor Moriarty was willing to engage (the bomb in the crowded auction hall for instance, the assassination outside said auction hall) he knew that Moriarty would not have hesitated to have Ms. Adler removed from play, treating her as little more than a chess piece in his game to draw Holmes into the open.
Holmes was neither a sentimental man, nor a foolish one, and Professor Moriarty hoped to used Ms. Adler's demise as a means of putting Holmes off-balance. Do not mistake the stoicism displayed by Holmes as a sign of not caring. He cared deeply for Ms. Adler. But with Moriarty making the stakes as high as they were, Holmes could not allow his feelings to be clouded by emotion. Holmes had tried to warn Ms. Adler several times of the threat of Moriarty, and being a capable adventurer, she was certain she could handle herself. Likely, against any other threat, she would have been able to.
Holmes did not follow the lead, because there was no need to. Professor Moriarty did not bluff and was perfectly willing to kill anyone that stood between him and his goal. If her death upset Holmes, so much the better. Icing, nothing more.
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